Sorry, AI Just Can’t Predict a Market Crash
Sorry, AI Just Can’t Predict a Market Crash
Blog Article
AI trailblazer Joseph Plazo just told a room full of top-tier future analysts something Wall Street refuses to hear: AI may be fast, but it can’t judge the unexpected.
MANILA — He didn’t show up to sugarcoat things. He came to drop truth bombs.
On a sweltering Thursday morning at the prestigious AIM campus in Manila, Plazo stood before a sea of students from top Asian universities—NUS—expecting a sermon on AI’s inevitable rise.
What they got instead? A splash of cold market reality.
“AI is like your smartest intern,” Plazo smirked, “But you still don’t give the intern the keys to your vault.”
The room broke into giggles. Then they paused. Because he was dead serious.
### The Hard Truth: AI Is Smart—But Not Human
Let’s be clear—Plazo isn’t some technophobe clinging to the past. He builds trading AIs. His firm, Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital, creates some of the most accurate systems on global markets. He understands machine learning like few do.
But that’s why his warning felt urgent.
“The problem isn’t AI,” he told the room. “It’s our wishful thinking. We keep dreaming it’ll save us from making hard decisions. That’s a fantasy.”
Plazo detailed real-world case studies—moments when AI signaled winning trades… right before a central bank pivot or an unexpected war. Events that didn’t fit the algorithm.
### Asia’s Best Challenged Him—and Learned Something
A student from Kyoto asked if LLMs might someday gauge global sentiment.
Plazo answered without blinking.
“AI can spot a tweetstorm. But it won’t sense dread in a press conference. It won’t catch regret in a central banker’s sigh.”
The room exhaled. Message received.
Another asked, “Can AI ever understand conviction?”
Plazo raised an eyebrow.
“Conviction isn’t math. It’s gut. It’s shaped by failure and memory. You don’t download that.”
### A Wake-Up Call for Tomorrow’s Titans
This wasn’t about flash trading or chatbots. It was about principle.
Students admitted they saw AI as a cheat code—an escape hatch from risk, from thinking too hard. Plazo tore that idea down.
“You can automate your trades. You can’t automate your values.”
That line echoed. Because everyone in that room—from the copyright cowboys to the quant whizzes—wanted alpha. But not at the cost of why they started.
### AI’s Real Role? Powerful—But Limited.
Plazo didn’t trash AI. He credited here its strengths:
- It filters noise.
- It backtests at scale.
- It spots technical setups better than any human.
But it can’t read sarcasm. It fails to sense when a politician is bluffing. And it doesn’t care if your retirement burns.
“If your AI bot makes a bad call,” Plazo asked, “do you still own it? Or do you blame the code?”
That’s leadership talking.
### This Isn’t Just Markets—It’s Mindset
Plazo wasn’t preaching finance. He was preaching self-leadership. Use AI—but don’t worship it. Let it assist—not decide.
And yes—he still believes in the machines. He’s building tools that track geopolitics, misinformation, even psychological nuance.
But he left no doubt:
“No machine can tell you when *not* to act. That’s your job.”
### Don’t Let Your Bot Decide Who You Are
As the crowd filed out—buzzing, challenged, changed—one phrase echoed down the halls:
“AI doesn’t know your values. So don’t let it make your decisions.”
In a world chasing speed, Plazo offered something rarer:
A pause.
Because investing isn’t just about *winning*. It’s about knowing **why** you played.